IMF Raises Fresh Concerns About AI and the Future of Work
Artificial intelligence is becoming a major force in the global economy, but its rapid development is also raising questions about the future of employment. The International Monetary Fund has warned that AI could affect approximately 40% of jobs worldwide, changing the way people work and how businesses hire employees.
The warning was highlighted during discussions at the 2026 IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, on October 12. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva discussed the economic opportunities created by AI alongside the risks it poses to workers and labour markets.
The central concern is not simply whether AI will eliminate jobs. The technology could also change job responsibilities, automate selected tasks, increase productivity and create demand for new skills.
What Does the 40% Estimate Mean?
The IMF's estimate refers to jobs that could be affected by artificial intelligence in different ways. Some positions may benefit from AI tools that help employees complete tasks faster, while other roles could face reduced demand as businesses automate more of their operations.
In advanced economies, the IMF estimates that around 60% of jobs may be exposed to AI. Exposure does not automatically mean that a position will disappear. In many cases, AI may assist workers rather than replace them entirely.
In emerging and developing economies, the immediate impact may differ because industries, digital infrastructure and job structures vary between countries.
The figures nevertheless show why governments, companies and educational institutions are increasingly focusing on preparing workers for an economy in which AI tools are widely available.
Entry-Level Jobs Face Growing Uncertainty
One of the major concerns surrounding AI adoption is the potential effect on entry-level employment.
Many junior positions involve tasks such as preparing reports, researching information, processing documents, handling routine customer questions and assisting with administrative work. AI systems are increasingly capable of performing parts of these activities.
Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam also raised concerns on October 12 about the impact of AI on employment opportunities for fresh graduates.
If businesses can automate a growing share of routine work, they may change the number of junior employees they recruit or redesign the responsibilities assigned to new workers.
However, the extent of this change will depend on the industry, the quality of AI systems, business requirements and the availability of employees with the right skills. It is too early to conclude that entry-level jobs will disappear across the entire economy.
Businesses Are Using AI to Increase Productivity
Companies across technology, finance, retail, manufacturing and professional services are exploring AI to improve productivity and reduce the time required for routine tasks.
AI tools can help employees analyse large datasets, prepare initial drafts, summarise documents, assist with software development and respond to common customer questions.
When these systems are used effectively, employees may be able to spend more time on complex decisions, customer relationships and creative work.
For businesses, the potential benefits include faster processes, improved operational efficiency and the ability to offer new services.
However, productivity gains are not automatic. Companies must invest in suitable technology, protect sensitive information, train employees and check AI-generated results for errors.
AI Could Create New Employment Opportunities
Although automation creates uncertainty for some workers, the growth of AI is also generating demand for new capabilities.
Companies need professionals who can develop AI systems, manage data, evaluate model performance, secure digital infrastructure and integrate AI into existing business operations.
Demand may also increase for workers who combine technical knowledge with industry expertise, communication skills, critical thinking and sound judgment.
For example, a financial professional who understands both accounting and AI tools may be able to analyse information more efficiently. A healthcare administrator familiar with digital systems may be better equipped to improve patient-service workflows.
The challenge is ensuring that workers have access to the education and training required to take advantage of these opportunities.
Why AI Could Increase Economic Inequality
The benefits of AI may not be distributed equally across countries, businesses or workers.
Large companies with substantial financial resources can often invest more quickly in advanced AI infrastructure, specialised employees and digital transformation. Smaller businesses may face greater difficulties adopting the same technologies.
Workers with in-demand technical skills may also benefit more quickly from productivity improvements, while employees performing highly automatable tasks could face greater pressure.
The IMF has warned that uneven adoption of AI could widen economic gaps between countries and within national economies.
Closing these gaps will require investment in digital infrastructure, accessible education, workforce development and policies that help smaller businesses adopt useful technologies.
Asia Could Benefit From AI-Driven Productivity
Asia is an important region in the global AI economy because it includes major semiconductor manufacturers, technology companies, digital service providers and large consumer markets.
AI could help businesses improve productivity in manufacturing, logistics, agriculture, healthcare and financial services.
The technology may also help some economies respond to demographic challenges. Several advanced Asian economies are expected to experience declines in their working-age populations in the coming decades.
According to recent IMF discussions, productivity gains from AI could help offset some of the economic pressure created by ageing populations and a smaller workforce.
However, countries will need suitable infrastructure, skilled workers and effective policies to translate the potential benefits into sustained economic growth.
Education and Reskilling Are Becoming More Important
As AI tools become more widely used, traditional education and workplace training systems may need to adapt.
Workers may need to learn how to use AI tools, verify their outputs, protect confidential information and apply human judgment to decisions involving customers, finances or public services.
Schools, colleges and training institutions can help by combining technical education with communication, problem-solving and practical experience.
Employers also have a role to play. Training existing staff may allow companies to introduce AI more effectively while helping employees transition into changing responsibilities.
Governments can support this process through vocational programmes, digital education initiatives and targeted assistance for workers affected by automation.
AI Investment Is Supporting Economic Growth
The expansion of AI infrastructure has become an important source of investment for the global economy.
Technology companies are spending heavily on data centres, advanced processors, networking equipment and electricity infrastructure needed to train and operate AI systems.
This spending supports activity across several industries, including semiconductor manufacturing, construction, energy and telecommunications.
The IMF has noted that AI investment is helping support economic activity, particularly in economies connected to the technology supply chain.
However, the long-term benefits will depend on whether companies can convert their investments into lasting productivity improvements and commercially sustainable services.
Governments Face Difficult Policy Decisions
The growing influence of AI creates new challenges for policymakers.
Governments must consider how to encourage innovation while protecting workers, maintaining competition and ensuring that the benefits of productivity growth are widely shared.
Possible policy priorities include updating education systems, improving access to digital infrastructure, strengthening social protection and ensuring that tax systems remain effective as the structure of work changes.
Regulators must also consider privacy, cybersecurity, accountability and the risks of relying on AI for important decisions.
There is no single approach that will work equally well for every country. Policies will need to reflect local labour markets, economic conditions and technological capabilities.
Will AI Replace Human Workers?
The impact of AI will vary considerably between occupations and industries.
Some repetitive tasks may be automated, while other jobs could become more productive through AI assistance. Certain roles may change substantially, and new occupations may emerge as businesses develop new products and services.
Human expertise will remain important in areas requiring accountability, complex judgment, interpersonal relationships and responsibility for consequential decisions.
At the same time, workers cannot assume that every existing task will remain unchanged. Learning how to work effectively with AI is likely to become increasingly valuable across many professions.
What Happens Next?
The coming years will provide a clearer picture of how AI affects employment, wages and productivity. Businesses will continue testing new tools, while governments and educational institutions work to prepare workers for changing job requirements.
Researchers will also need to distinguish between jobs that are exposed to AI, jobs that become more productive with AI and positions that are actually eliminated.
These distinctions matter because a change in job tasks does not necessarily translate into a loss of employment. The outcome depends on how companies reorganise work and whether new demand creates opportunities elsewhere.
Conclusion
The IMF's warning that AI could affect around 40% of jobs worldwide highlights the scale of the transformation taking place in the global economy.
The technology offers opportunities to improve productivity, create new services and support economic growth. It also raises important questions about entry-level employment, worker training and the distribution of economic benefits.
The outcome will depend not only on how quickly AI develops, but also on the decisions made by governments, employers, educational institutions and workers.
Preparing people for changing responsibilities will be essential to ensuring that AI becomes a source of broader economic opportunity rather than a driver of deeper inequality.
Journalist: Vijay Singh